The Stat Pack
The FY2016 forecast of EDAWN-assisted new jobs was adjusted to 3,000 jobs. If this estimate is reached, it would be nearly the same number of jobs assisted in as 2015. There is still plenty of time for the number to change. And if recent trends can be maintained, it means that 2016 could become a banner year. Note: These jots do not include all the jobs related to Tesla.
The chart clearly illustrates the success that EDAWN has had in helping to attract new companies to the Reno-Sparks region. In the meantime, the governor of Reno leaves Las Vegas to languish. Since 2011, EDAWN has assisted in creating 10,400 jobs in the region.
The RCG Jobs Index 12-month moving average (“12MMA”) for Reno-Sparks increased to 96.8 in October, a 1.3-point rise from 95.5, recorded in October 2014. October’s index continues the upward trajectory started in 2011 and we expect this trend to continue. The peak of 99.8 occurred in December 2008 and the trough of 89.6 occurred in January 2010.
Reno-Sparks job growth on a 12-Month Moving Average (“12MMA”) basis remained 2.9% in October for the fourth straight month, but was down from 3.4% in October 2014. The rate’s lowest level in the last 10 years occurred in November 2009 (-9.3%).
The 12MMA of the headline unemployment rate dropped to 6.5% compared to 7.7% in October 2014. The unemployment rate has been steadily improving for 4 years.
Total construction jobs in the Reno-Sparks MSA remained 11,333 in October, on a 12MMA basis, but they were up by 0.3% from the 11,300 jobs recorded in October 2014. In October, construction jobs represented 5.7% of the job-base. Construction jobs in the MSA peaked at 24,042 in August 2006 on a 12MMA basis, when the industry accounted for 11.1% of all jobs
October’s 12MMA visitor total for Reno-Sparks increased by 2.2% Y-O-Y to 392,996. This was the largest Y-O-Y percent increase since December 2013. Visitation to the region has not seen the turnaround that Las Vegas has experienced. The 12MMA peak occurred in May 2004, when 467,904 visitors came to the region. The highest annual grow rate occurred in January 2013, when visitor volume grew 5.8%. The Reno-Sparks hospitality industry continues to face challenges.
Washoe County 12MMA Y-O-Y gross gaming revenue growth in October (4%) represents the 10th consecutive month of improvement and the largest percent increase since August 2006, with total revenue reaching $64.6 million. Compared to September, there was a 0.5% increase.
Gaming revenues peaked in June 2006 at $89.4 million. On an annual growth rate basis, revenues peaked at 5.5% in June 2006.
Like Clark County, retail sales in Washoe County have been steadily climbing, reaching $581.5 million in September, up 8.2% on a 12MMA basis when compared to September 2014. They are steadily moving back to their peak on a nominal basis (not inflation-adjusted). This makes 54 (4.5 years) consecutive months with rising retail sales on a Y-O-Y basis. As the chart shows, Washoe’s taxable sales growth is significantly beating the state average on a percent growth basis.
MLS home resales in the Reno-Sparks area rose to 527 units in October on a 12MMA. This metric has risen 12 of the last 13 months and home sales are in record-high territory. The median price rose to $275,327 (12MMA) in October. That was a 15.4% jump compared to October 2014. By comparison, the Las Vegas median resale price in October increased by 9.6% to $186,799.
The Housing Opportunity Index for the Reno-Sparks MSA declined in Q3, 2015 from 56.4 in Q2 to 55.9, on a four-quarter moving average basis. The U.S. index increased from 63.6 to 63.7 during the same period. On a Y-O-Y basis, the index fell 7.1 points from 60.2 in Q3, 2014.
Reno-Sparks’ HOI peaked at 85.8 in Q1, 2012. It bottomed out at 17.3 in Q4, 2006 at the peak of the housing boom. The 10-year average is 57.6.
According to Colliers International, the Reno-Sparks office vacancy declined to 16% in Q3, 2015 on a four-quarter moving average basis, its lowest value since Q1, 2008. This indicates that the Reno-Sparks Spec Office market is improving but continues to be sluggish. By comparison, the Las Vegas Spec Office vacancy rate was 21.5% in Q3, on a 4QMA basis.
The Q3, 2015 industrial vacancy rate of 9.2% increased from Q2, 2015 (8.5%), but remains under the 10% stabilized rate. In comparison, the Las Vegas Industrial vacancy rate was 6.3% in Q3, on a 4QMA basis.
The 12MMA of the average weekly wage (not adjusted for inflation) in the Reno-Sparks MSA reached $801 in October, rising by 12.3% from $713 in October 2014. Additionally, the inflation-adjusted 12MMA wage of $711 recorded in October represented an increase of 12.1% over the $634 recorded in October 2014. In October, the Reno-Sparks average weekly real earnings were 10.9% higher than the Las Vegas average of $641. Inflation-adjusted wages are now at their highest levels ever recorded in the Reno-Sparks MSA.
Average weekly hours worked in the Reno-Sparks labor market are bucking the state and national trends and have sharply turned up over the last year. Weekly hours reached 34.4 in October, up 1.9 hours compared to the 32.5-hour trough (7-year) of September 2014, on a 12MMA basis. The 7-year peak occurred in October 2008 at 37.1 hours.
According to AAA, on December 8, 2015, the average price per gallon for regular unleaded gasoline in Reno-Sparks had plummeted by 13.6% from $2.96 a year prior to $2.56. The price was also down $0.15 (5.5%) compared to November 8. We expect gas prices to remain lower than last year for the rest of 2015.
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